Krisis hutang kerajaan Greece

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Peratusan hutang Greece sejak 1999 berbanding purata Zon Euro

Krisis hutang kerajaan Greece ialah salah satu daripada beberapa krisis hutang Eropah semasa.

Bermula pada akhir 2009, kebimbangan mengenai krisis hutang negara muncul di kalangan pelabur mengenai keupayaan Greece untuk memenuhi kewajipan hutang disebabkan oleh peningkatan tinggi dalam tahap hutang kerajaan.[1][2] Ini membawa kepada krisis keyakinan, ditandakan dengan pelebaran rebakan hasil bon dan kos insurans risiko pertukaran mungkir kredit berbanding negara lain, terutamanya Jerman.[3][4] Penurunan hutang kerajaan Greek ke status bon kualiti rendah pada April 2010 menimbulkan kecemasan dalam pasaran kewangan. Pada 2 Mei 2010, negara zon euro dan IMF mempersetujui pinjaman €110 bilion untuk Greece, tertakluk kepada pelaksanaan langkah-langkah penjimatan keras. Pada bulan Oktober 2011, pemimpin zon Euro bersetuju menawarkan pinjaman kedua, €130 bilion bagi keperluan kewangan Greece bagi tahun fiskal 2012 dan 2013. Selain langkah penjimatan, pinjaman ini mensyaratkan semua pemiutang bersetuju langkah penstrukturan semula hutang Greece. Tempoh pembayaran semula dilanjutkan kepada 15 tahun, kadar faedah diturnkan kepada 3.5%, dan pemegang bon menerima penghapusan nilai nominal 50% hutang mereka. Greece perlu menerima syarat ini selewat-lewatnya Mac 2012, atau "mungkir negara" akan diisytiharkan.

Di sidang kemuncak EU pada 2011, para pemimpin mengambil dua langkah bagi mengurangkan risiko menularnya krisis ini, sekiranya Greece mungkir. Langkah tersebut ialah meningkatkan EFSF kepada €1 trilion dan mewajibkan bank-bank Eropah untuk mencapai permodalan 9% bagi agar cukup kukuh dan dapat menyerap kerugian.

Sebab[sunting | sunting sumber]

Fail:HellenicOeconomy(inCurrentEuros).jpg
Carta gabungan Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) dan Hutang Greece sejak tahun 1970; juga Defisit sejak tahun 2000. Mutlak siri masa dalam euro semasa.

Ekonomi Yunani adalah salah satu yang paling pesat berkembang dalam zon euro 2000-2007; dalam tempoh itu, ia meningkat pada kadar tahunan sebanyak 4.2% sebagai modal asing membanjiri negara ini.[5] Ekonomi yang kukuh dan kejatuhan kadar hasil bon membenarkan kerajaan Greece untuk menjalankan besar defisit struktur.

Menurut kepada editorial yang disiarkan oleh akhbar sayap kanan Yunani [Kathimerini]], defisit awam yang besar adalah salah satu ciri-ciri yang telah ditanda model sosial dalam bahasa Yunani sejak pemulihan demokrasi pada tahun 1974. Selepas penyingkiran junta tentera sayap kanan, kerajaan mahu membawa gerakan penentang yang kuat bahagian berhaluan kiri penduduk dalam arus perdana ekonomi.[6] Untuk berbuat demikian, kerajaan Yunani berturut-turut, antara lain, kebiasaan berjalan defisit yang besar untuk membiayai pekerjaan di sektor awam, pencen, dan lain-lain faedah sosial.[7] Sejak tahun 1994, nisbah hutang kepada KDNK kekal melebihi 94%. Dalam kegawatan Krisis Kewangan Global ia berkembang pesat di atas paras maksimum yang tidak lestari untuk Greece (ditakrifkan oleh majoriti ahli ekonomi untuk menjadi 120%). Menurut "Program Pelarasan Ekonomi untuk Greece" "yang diterbitkan oleh Suruhanjaya EU pada bulan Oktober 2011, paras hutang dijangka untuk mencapai tahap yang tidak lestari 181% pada tahun 2012.[8]

Pada mulanya, mata wang penurunan nilai membantu membiayai pinjaman. Selepas pengenalan euro pada bulan Januari 2001, Greece pada mulanya dapat meneruskan tahap pinjaman, kerana faedah yang lebih rendah kadar bon kerajaan boleh memberi perintah, dalam kombinasi dengan siri yang panjang kadar pertumbuhan yang kukuh KDNK di Greece. Masalah bagaimanapun mula meningkat, apabila Krisis Kewangan Global memuncak dengan kesan negatif yang memukul semua ekonomi negara pada September 2008. Krisis Kewangan Global mempunyai impak khususnya besar negatif ke atas kadar pertumbuhan Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) di Greece. Dua industri terbesar di negara ini ialah pelancongan dan perkapalan, dan kedua-dua terjejas teruk oleh kemelesetan, dengan pendapatan yang jatuh 15% pada tahun 2009.[9] Satu lagi masalah yang konsisten Greece telah mengalami dalam beberapa dekad kebelakangan ini, cukai pendapatan kerajaan. Setiap tahun ia beberapa kali di bawah paras yang dijangka. Pada tahun 2010, pengelakan cukai bagi anggaran kos kerajaan Yunani berjumlah lebih $20 bilion setahun.[10]

Untuk memastikan dalam tempoh garis panduan kesatuan kewangan, kerajaan Greece mempunyai juga selama bertahun-tahun misreported statistik rasmi ekonomi negara.[11][12] At the beginning of 2010, it was discovered that Greece had paid Goldman Sachs and other banks hundreds of millions of dollars in fees since 2001, for arranging transactions that hid the actual level of borrowing.[13] Tujuan tawaran yang dibuat oleh beberapa kerajaan Yunani berturut-turut, adalah untuk membolehkan mereka untuk terus berbelanja, manakala menyembunyikan defisit sebenar dari EU.[14] Seperti yang dilaporkan dalam jadual di bawah, statistik yang disemak semula menunjukkan bahawa Greece pada setiap tahun dari tahun 2000-2010 telah melebihi kriteria kestabilan Euro, dengan defisit tahunan yang melebihi had maksimum yang disyorkan pada 3.0% daripada KDNK, dan juga paras hutang dengan jelas melebihihad yang disyorkan pada 60% daripada KDNK.

Pada Februari 2010, kerajaan baru George Papandreou (dipilih pada bulan Oktober 2009), menyemak semula defisit 2009 daripada% sebelum ini dianggarkan 5% yang membimbangkan 12.7 daripada KDNK.[15] In May 2010, the Greek government deficit was estimated to be 13.6%[16] which is one of the highest in the world relative to GDP.[17] Greek government debt was estimated at €216 billion in January 2010.[18] Hutang kerajaan terkumpul telah diramalkan, mengikut sesetengah anggaran, mencecah 120% daripada KDNK pada tahun 2010.[19] Pasaran bon kerajaan Yunani bergantung kepada pelabur asing, dengan beberapa anggaran mencadangkan bahawa sehingga kepada 70% daripada bon kerajaan Greek diadakan luaran.[20]

Walaupun dalam krisis, lelongan bon kerajaan Greek pada Januari 2010, mempunyai jumlah yang ditawarkan €8bn 5 tahun bon lebih dilanggan oleh empat kali.[21] Pada lelongan seterusnya Mac, Financial Times lagi katanya: "dijual Athens € 5bn dalam bon 10 tahun dan menerima pesanan untuk tiga kali ganda amaun".[22] Lelongan terus berjaya dan penjualan bon, Walau bagaimanapun, hanya boleh dilakukan pada kos peningkatan hasil, yang pulangan menyebabkan semakin teruk lagi defisit awam Greek. Hasilnya, agensi penarafan akhirnya menurunkan ekonomi Greece status ringan pada akhir April 2010. Dari segi praktikal ini menyebabkan pasaran modal swasta untuk membekukan, supaya semua keperluan kewangan Yunani kini sebaliknya terpaksa dilindungi oleh pinjaman menyelamatkan antarabangsa, untuk mengelakkan [lalai berdaulat]].[23]

Sejarah hutang kerajaan dan defisit Source (1999-kini)
: Eurostat, ELSTAT, MinFin
1999 2000 20011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (estimates)2 2012 (forecasts)2 2013 (forecasts)2
Public debt, billion €[24][25][8][26] 122.3 141 151.9 159.2 168 183.2 195.4 224.2 239.3 263.1 299.5 329.4 354.7/356.5 371.9/384.9 388.5
Public debt, % of GDP[24][25][26][8] 94 103.4 103.7 101.7 97.4 98.6 100 106.1 107.4 113.0 129.3 144.9 161.8/162.8 172.7/181.4 181.3
pertumbuhan KDNK, tahunan %[27][28][8][26] 3.4 3.5 4.2 3.4 5.9 4.4 2.3 5.5 3.0 −0.2 −3.3 −3.5 −5.5 −2.8 0.7
Belanjawan defisit, % of GDP[29][25][26][8] −3.7 −4.5 −4.8 −5.6 −7.5 −5.2 −5.7 −6.5 −9.8 −15.8 −10.6 −8.5/−8.9 −6.8/−7.0 −5.3

1 Tahun kemasukan ke dalam Zon Eropah. 2 Anggaran dan Unjuran yang diterbitkan pada bulan Okt-Dis.2011.

Anggaran flash rasmi pertama bagi pertumbuhan KDNK pada tahun 2011, berdasarkan akaun awam untuk semua 4 suku dan dikira bagi tahun secara purata, menunjukkan bahawa KDNK pada harga malar merosot -6,8%.[30] Ini adalah lebih teruk berbanding unjuran sebelumnya pada -5.5%, dan berpotensi memanggil keperluan untuk meningkatkan lagi yang € terkini 130bn bailout bungkusan, sedang dirundingkan pada bulan Februari 2012.

Penurunan taraf hutang[sunting | sunting sumber]

Pada 27 April 2010, penarafan hutang Yunani telah menurun kepada tahap atas "kualiti rendah"[31] status by Standard & Poor's amidst hints of default by the Greek government.[32] Yields on Greek government two-year bonds rose to 15.3% following the downgrading.[33] Some analysts continue to question Greece's ability to refinance its debt. Standard & Poor's estimates that in the event of default investors would fail to get 30–50% of their money back.[32] Stock markets worldwide declined in response to this announcement.[34]

Following downgradings by Fitch and Moody's, as well as Standard & Poor's,[35] Greek bond yields rose in 2010, both in absolute terms and relative to German government bonds.[36] Yields have risen, particularly in the wake of successive ratings downgrading. According to The Wall Street Journal, "with only a handful of bonds changing hands, the meaning of the bond move isn't so clear."[37]

On 3 May 2010, the European Central Bank (ECB) suspended its minimum threshold for Greek debt "until further notice",[38] meaning the bonds will remain eligible as collateral even with junk status. The decision will guarantee Greek banks' access to cheap central bank funding, and analysts said it should also help increase Greek bonds' attractiveness to investors.[39] Following the introduction of these measures the yield on Greek 10-year bonds fell to 8.5%, 550 basis points above German yields, down from 800 basis points earlier.[40] As of 22 September 2011, Greek 10-year bonds were trading at an effective yield of 23.6%, more than double the amount of the year before.[41]


Countermeasures[sunting | sunting sumber]

Measures taken by the Greek government[sunting | sunting sumber]

Greece adopted a number of austerity packages since 2010. According to research published on 5 May 2010 by Citibank, the fiscal tightening is "unexpectedly tough". It will amount to a total of €30 billion (i.e. 12.5% of 2009 Greek GDP) and consist of 5% of GDP tightening in 2010 and a further 4% tightening in 2011.[42]

First austerity package – February 2010[sunting | sunting sumber]

The first round came with the signing of the memorandums with the IMF and the ECB concerning a loan of €80 billion. The package was implemented on 9 February 2010 and included a freeze in the salaries of all government employees, a 10% cut in bonuses, as well as cuts in overtime workers, public employees and work-related travels.[43]

Second austerity package – March/April 2010[sunting | sunting sumber]

On 5 March 2010, amid new fears of bankruptcy, the Greek parliament passed the "Economy Protection Bill", which was expected to save another €4.8 billion.[44] The measures include (in addition to the above):[45] 30% cuts in Christmas, Easter and leave of absence bonuses, a further 12% cut in public bonuses, a 7% cut in the salaries of public and private employees, a rise of VAT from 4.5% to 5%, from 9% to 10% and from 19% to 21%, a rise of tax on petrol to 15%, a rise in the (already existing) taxes on imported cars of up to 10%–30%, among others.

On 23 April 2010, after realizing the second austerity package failed to improve the country's economic position, the Greek government requested that the EU/International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout package be activated.[46] Greece needed money before 19 May, or it would face a debt roll over of $11.3bn.[47][48][49] The IMF had said it was "prepared to move expeditiously on this request".[50]

Shortly after the European Commission, the IMF and ECB set up a tripartite committee (the Troika) to prepare an appropriate programme of economic policies underlying a massive loan. The Troika was led by Servaas Deroose, from the European Commission, and included also Poul Thomsen (IMF) and Klaus Masuch (ECB) as junior partners. In return the Greek government agreed to implement further measures.[51]

Pakej penjimatan ketiga – Mei 2010[sunting | sunting sumber]

Pada 1 Mei 2010, Perdana Menteri George Papandreou mengumumkan satu lagi pusingan langkah penjimatan yang disebut sebagai "unprecedented".[52] Cadangan perubahan, yang bertujuan untuk menjimatkan €38 bilion sepanjang 2012, mewakili baik pulih kerajaan yang terbesar dalam satu generasi.[53] The bill was submitted to Parliament on 4 May and approved on separate votes on 29 and 30 June.[54][55] It was met with a nationwide general strike and massive protests the following day, with three people being killed, dozens injured, and 107 arrested.[53]

The measures include:[56][57][58]

  • Potongan elaun sektor awam sebanyak 8% (tambahan kepada dua pakej penjimatan sebelum ini) dan pemotongan gaji sebanyak 3% untuk para pekerja DEKO (kemudahan sektor awam).
  • Public sector limit of €1,000 introduced to bi-annual bonus, abolished entirely for those earning over €3,000 a month.
  • Limit of €500 per month to 13th and 14th month salaries of public employees; abolished for employees receiving over €3,000 a month.
  • Limit of €800 per month to 13th and 14th month pension installments; abolished for pensioners receiving over €2,500 a month.
  • Return of a special tax on high pensions.Templat:Which?
  • Extraordinary taxes imposed on company profits.
  • Kenaikan nilai hartanah (dan menjadikan cukai lebih tinggi).
  • Kenaikan tambahan sebanyak 10% ke atas semua kereta impot.
  • Changes were planned to the laws governing lay-offs and overtime pay.[specify]
  • Increases in value added tax to 23% (from 19%), 11% (from 9%) and 5.5% (from 4%).
  • 10% rise in luxury taxes and sin taxes on alcohol, cigarettes, and fuel.
  • Equalization of men's and women's pension age limits.
  • General pension age has not changed, but a mechanism has been introduced to scale them to life expectancy changes.
  • A financial stability fund has been created.[specify]
  • Average retirement age for public sector workers will be increased from 61 to 65.[59]
  • The number of public-owned companies shall be reduced from 6,000 to 2,000.[59]
  • The number of municipalities shall shrink from 1,000 to 400.[59]

Pada Mei 2010, satu perjanjian pinjaman telah dimeterai di antara Greece, negara-negara Zon Eropah lain dan Tabung Kewangan Antarabangsa. Perjanjian merangkumi pinjaman segera €45 bilion yang akan diberikan pada 2010 dengan lebih banyak dana disediakan kemudian. Pembayaran pertama meliputi €8.5 bilion bon Yunani yang akan matang untuk pembayaran.[60]

Secara keseluruhan, sejumlah €110 bilion telah dipersetujui.[61][62] The interest for the eurozone loans is 5%, considered to be a rather high level for any bailout loan. The European Monetary Union loans will be pari passu and not senior like those of the IMF. In fact the seniority of the IMF loans themselves has no legal basis but is respected nonetheless. The loans should cover Greece's funding needs for the next three years (estimated at €30 billion for the rest of 2010 and €40 billion each for 2011 and 2012).[42] According to EU officials, France and Germany[63] demanded that their military dealings with Greece be a condition of their participation in the financial rescue.[64]

Setakat 12 Mei 2010 (2010-05-12), the deficit was down 40% from the previous year.[59]

Fourth austerity package – June 2011 (Mid-term plan)[sunting | sunting sumber]

Further austerity was introduced in 2011. In the midst of public discontent, massive protests and a 24-hour-strike throughout Greece,[65][66] the parliament debated on whether or not to pass a new austerity bill, known in Greece as the "mesoprothesmo" (the mid-term [plan]).[67][68] The government's intent to pass further austerity measures was met with discontent from within the government and parliament as well,[68] but was eventually passed with 155 votes in favor[67][68] (a marginal 5-seat majority). Horst Reichenbach headed up the task force overseeing Greek implementation of austerity and structural adjustment.[69]

The new measures included:[70][71] raising €50 billion from privatizations and sales of government property; increasing taxes for those with a yearly income of over €8,000, extra tax for those with a yearly income of over €12,000, increasing VAT in the housing industry, an extra tax of 2% for combating unemployment, lower pension payments ranging from 6% to 14% from the previous 4% to 10%, the creation of a special agency responsible with exploiting government property, and others.

On 11 August 2011 the government introduced more taxes, this time targeted at people owning immovable property.[72] The new tax, which is to be paid through the owner's electricity bill,[72] will affect 7.5 million Public Power Corporation accounts[72] and ranges from 3 to 20 euro per square meter.[73] The tax will apply for 2011–2012 and is expected to raise €4 billion in revenue.[72]

On 19 August 2011 the Greek Minister of Finance, Evangelos Venizelos, said that new austerity measures "should not be necessary".[74] On 20 August 2011 it was revealed that the government's economic measures were still out of track;[75] government revenue went down by €1.9 billion while spending went up by €2.7 billion.[75]

On a meeting with representatives of the country's economic sectors on 30 August 2011, the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance acknowledged that some of the austerity measures were irrational,[76] such as the high VAT, and that they were forced to take them with a gun to the head.[76]

In October, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou got parliamentary backing for further austerity measures. These new measures would allow Greece to get an extra instalment of international loans that would prevent a sovereign default and they would make possible the partial write-off of Greek debt, the so called Private Sector Involvment (PSI).[77] As a result of this backing, Greece was granted by the EU a quid pro quo of further austerity for a €100bn loan and a 50% debt reduction through PSI.[78] Within a week, Papandreou, backed unanimously by his cabinet, announced a referendum on the deal, sending shockwaves through the financial markets.[79][80] This resulted in Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel and France's prime minister Nicolas Sarkozy issuing an ultimatum declaring that, unless the referendum resulted in the approval of the new measures, they would withhold an overdue €6bn loan payment to Athens, money that Greece needed by mid-December.[79][81] Papandreou cancelled the referendum the next day after the New Democracy Party, leaders of the oposition, agreed to back the agreement.[79]

On November 10 Papandreou resigned as prime minister following an agreement with the New Democracy party and the Popular Orthodox Rally to appoint a new prime minister of common acceptance promulgate laws associated with implementing the new measures that were agreed with the EU.[82]The person chosen for this task was non-MP technocrat Lucas Papademos, former Governor of the Bank of Greece and former Vice President of the European Central Bank; his appointment was criticised by left-wing parties and branded "unconstitutional".[83] By contrast, three separate polls taken when Papademos assumed office revealed that around 75% of Greeks thought that temporary, emergency technocratic rule was "positive".[83] The EU insisted that whichever government was elected after Papademos in 2012, it must be bound to honour the agreed upon EU-IMF austerity strategy.[84] It thus demanded that Greek party-political leaders sign legally-binding letters to this effect, as well as to any additional measures that might be required in future as part of the second rescue-package.[84] Papademos argued in favour of signing, even in the face of opposition from major pro-austerity factions in his government.[84] Such letters would bind Greek governments to austerity and structural adjustment through to 2020.[84] At the end of December, it was announced that the general election to replace Papademos' technocratic administration was to be delayed until April 2012, as more time was needed to finalise plans for austerity and structural adjustment, as well as to complete negotiations over the Greek debt reduction.[85]

Finalising the deal on the 50% PSI debt write-off, required by the troika as a condition for extending more aid, proved difficult in early 2012, with hedge funds being the most difficult to persuade.[86][87][88][89] In an interview with The New York Times, Papademos said that if his country did not receive unanimous agreement from its bondholders to voluntarily write down €100bn of Greek's €340bn debt, he would consider legislating to force bondholder losses, and that if things went well, Greeks could expect "an end to austerity" in 2013.[90] Others believed that even the proposed 50% would not be enough to prevent a sovereign default.[90][91][92]

Fight against corruption and tax evasion[sunting | sunting sumber]

The rapid increase in government revenue is difficult, since

The size of the Greek black economy is estimated to be around €65bn, resulting in €20bn of unpaid taxes.[93] Greece has aimed at increasing the effectiveness of its tax authorities to get a hold of shady business practices and to push back Fakelaki, the practice of cash donations through the envelope.[94] A rapid increase in government revenue is unlikely, given the restructuring of the tax authorities and legislative changes at most show a long-term success.[95]

The Inspector General of Public Administration[96] has started an online census of civil servants. In connection with this census he has uncovered a number criminal offenses, including an entire non-existent health authority.[97]

In 2010 the government has implemented a tax reform. The year 2012 saw the introduction of a duty of non-cash payments for amounts over 1,500 Euros.[98][99]

The Greek police have established a special unit, which deals exclusively with tax offenses. The new police force is supported by experts from the German financial management and tax investigation office, who provide technical assistance.[100]

In November 2011, the new Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos called upon all persons who owe the state more than €150,000 to pay their outstanding taxes until November 24 or find their names on a black list published on the Internet. The government later revealed the list, which also includes a number of prominent Greeks, including pop stars and sportsmen.[101]

Fifth austerity package – February 2012[sunting | sunting sumber]

In February 2012, facing sovereign default, Greece was in need of more funds from the IMF and EU by 20 March 2012, and was negotiating over the next lending package, worth €130 billion. On 10 February 2012, the Greek cabinet approved a draft bill with new austerity plan, which has been calculated to improve the 2012 budget deficit with €3.3bn (and a further €10bn improvement scheduled for 2013 and 2014). The austerity plan includes:[102][103]

  • 22% cut in minimum wage from the current €750 per month
  • Holiday wage bonuses (2 extra months of full wage being paid each year) are permanently cancelled
  • 150,000 jobs cut from state sector by 2015, of which 15,000 shall be cut by the end of 2012
  • Pension cuts worth €300 million in 2012
  • Changes to laws to make it easier to lay off workers
  • Health and defense spending cuts
  • Industry sectors are given the right to negotiate lower wages depending on economic development.
  • Opening up closed professions to allow for more competition, particularly in the health, tourism, and real estate sectors
  • Privatizations worth €15bn by 2015, including Greek gas companies DEPA and DESFA. In the medium term, the goal remains at €50bn.

Besides the new austerity package, there are other hurdles for Greece to get the loans:[104]

  • Demands from eurozone finance ministers:
  • €325 million out of the total €3.3bn package, still need to be specified, in the form of "structural expenditure reductions"
  • Written commitments from the main party leaders to support the program before and after elections
  • Negotiations with private creditors over the proportion of debt write-off and over the bond swap
  • A debt sustainability report by the troika

Showing position of disagreement, the transport minister and member of the Popular Orthodox Rally Makis Voridis along with five deputy ministers from various ministries resigned.[105] On 11 February, caretaker prime minister Lucas Papademos warned of "social explosion and chaos" if the parliament would not approve the deal the next day. After a night of debating, the parliament passed the plan with 199 votes for and 74 against on the early hours of 13 February, while massive protests were witnessed in Athens that left stores looted and burned and more than 120 people injured. The riot was one of the worst since 2010.[106][107]

Despite being one of the ruling parties, the Popular Orthodox Rally voted against the plan and withdrew itself from the government. Forty-three MPs from the other two ruling parties (socialist PASOK and conservative New Democracy) also voted against the plan and were immediately expelled from their parties. This reduced the combined power of these two parties from 236 to 193 seats, which is still majority for the 300-seat parliament of Greece.[108] The vote was a major precondition for the EU and IMF to jointly release the funds, which are supposed to cover all financial needs in 2012 and 2013. The troika hopes that Greece will be able to receive all its economic funding from private capital markets in 2014.[109]

The determination of the leaders of Greek ruling parties to implement the new austerity package was doubted, and their written assurance was demanded by the eurozone finance ministers. For example, despite voting for the austerity package, Antonis Samaras, leader of New Democracy, talked about renegotiating the deal.[110]

Langkah-langkah diambil oleh EU dan IMF[sunting | sunting sumber]

Pakej menyelamat pertama daripada EU dan IMF - April 2010[sunting | sunting sumber]

Having had the credit rating agencies further downgraded Greece's ability to achieve and the risk premiums on long-term Greek government bonds first record levels, the Greek government requested on 23 April 2010 official financial assistance.

The European Union (EU), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed on 1-2 May 2010 with the Greek government to a three-year financial aid program (loan commitments) totaling 110 billion euros. The Greek debt in exchange for household should be consolidated within three years, so that the budget deficit should be reduced by 2014 to below 3 percent.[111]

Of the 110 billion promised by the IMF took €30bn, the Eurozone 80 billion (as bilateral loan commitments). Instrumental in determining the rates of the individual euro area countries in the €80bn of the Eurozone was the respective equity interest in the capital of the ECB, which in turn is determined every five years after the prorated share of a country in the total population and economic output in the EU. The German share of the €80bn was 28%, or about €22.4bn in three years.[112]

In May 2010 Greece received the first tranche of the bailout money totaling €20bn.[113] Of this total, 5.5 billion came from the IMF and 14.5 billion of Euro states.[114]

On 13 September the second Tranche of €6.5bn was disbursed. The 3rd tranche of the same amount was paid on 19 January 2011. On 16 March the 4th tranche in the amount of €10.9 billion euros was paid out, followed by the 5th installment on 2 July.[114] The 6th tranche of €8bn was paid out after months of delay in early December. Of this amount, the IMF took over €2.2bn euros.[115]

Pakej menyelamat kedua daripada EU dan IMF - Julai 2011[sunting | sunting sumber]

Since the first rescue package proved insufficient, the 17 leaders of Euro countries approved a second rescue package at an EU summit on 21 July 2011.[116] The aid package has a volume of 109 billion euros, provided by the newly created European Financial Stability Facility. The repayment period was extended from seven to 15 years and the interest rate was lowered to 3.5%.[117]

For the first time, this also included a private sector involvement, meaning that the private financial sector took a voluntary hair cut. It was agreed that the net contribution of banks and insurance companies to support Greece would include an additional 37 billion euros in 2014.[118] The planned purchase of Greek bonds from private creditors by the euro rescue fund at their face value will burden the private sector with at least another €12.6 billion.[119]

It was also announced at the EU summit, a reconstruction plan for Greece in order to promote economic growth. [117] The European Commission established a "Task Force for Greece" Declaration of the EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso at a special summit][120]

EU summit on 26 October 2011[sunting | sunting sumber]

On the night of 26 to 27 October the Euro countries agreed on a plan to cut the debt of Greece from todays 160% to 120% of GDP by 2020. As part of that plan, it was proposed that all owners of Greek governmental bonds, should "voluntarily" accept a 50% haircut of their bonds (resulting in a debt reduction worth €100bn), and more over accept interest rates being reduced to only 3.5%. At the time of the summit, this was at first formaly accepted by the government banks in Europe. The task to negotiate a final deal also including the private creditors, was handed over to the Greek politicians.

Lenders were planned to convert their bonds into the new "haircutted" bonds in January 2012. As negotiations with the private creditors proofed more difficult than expected, this time line however has been a bit delayed. According to the latest news, the "haircut deal" is expected to be finalized and submitted to the EU comission at February 20, and if approved the bond exchange will happen in March. In the euro-area, Member States have pledged to contribute uptil €30bn for private sector participation.[121]

Another decision by the summit was to leverage the EFSF funds from €500bn to €1000bn. The leverage had previously been criticized from many sides,[122] because it is something taxpayers ultimately risk to pay for, due to the significantly increased risks assumed by the EFSF.[123]

In view of the uncertainty of the domestic political development in Greece, the first disbursement was suspended after Prime Minister George Papandreou announced on 1 November 2011 that he wanted to hold a referendum on the decisions of the Euro summit. After two days of intense pressure, particularly from Germany and France, he finally gave up on the idea. On 11 November 2011 he was succeeded as prime minister by Loukas Papadimos, who leads a new transitional government. The most important task of this interim government, was to finalize the "haircut deal" for Greek governmental bonds and pass a new austerity package, to comply with the Troika requirements for receiving the second bailout loan worth €130bn (enhanced from the previously offered amount at €109bn).

Objections to proposed policies[sunting | sunting sumber]

Protests in Athens on 25 May 2011
Economic and social effects of austerity measures

In exchange for European funding Greece was forced to impose strict fiscal austerity.[124][125] As early as 2010 some economists have expressed fears that the negative impact of tighter fiscal policy could offset the positive impact of lower borrowing costs and social disruption could have a significantly negative impact on investment and growth in the longer term. US economist Joseph Stiglitz has also criticised the EU for being too slow to help Greece, insufficiently supportive of the new government, lacking the will power to set up sufficient "solidarity and stabilisation framework" to support countries experiencing economic difficulty, and too deferential to bond rating agencies.[126]

According to an IMF official austerity measures have helped Greece bring down its primary deficit from €24.7bn (15.8% of GDP) in 2009 to just over €5bn (9.3%) in 2011[127][128] but they also dragged the country into five consecutive years of recession.[129] Industrial output is more than 28% lower than in 2005[130] The number of Greek companies that went bankrupt in 2011 was 27% higher than the year before.[131] Unemployment rates are hitting a record high[132] reaching almost 20 percent by 2011.[133] Youth unemployment reached 48%, up from 22.4% back in 2008 when the financial crisis began.[134]

The social effects of the austerity measures on the Greek population have been severe, as well as on poor and needy foreign immigrants, with some Greek citizens turning to NGOs for healthcare treatment.[135] By 2011 more than a third of the nation had fallen into poverty.[136] On 17 October 2011 Minister of Finance Evangelos Venizelos announced that the government would establish a new fund, aimed at helping those who were hit the hardest from the government's austerity measures.[137] The money for this agency will come from the proceeds made by tackling tax evasion.[137]

February 2012 saw Poul Thomsen, a Danish IMF official overseeing the Greek austerity programme, warn that ordinary Greeks were at the "limit" of their toleration of austerity as he called for recognition of "the fact that Greece has done a lot, at a great cost to the population".[138] Another IMF official admitted that excessive spending cuts were harming Greece.[127] One United Nations official warned that the austerity measures could pose a violation of human rights.[139]

Public opinion

On a poll [140] by Public Issue and SKAI Channel, PASOK who has won the National Elections of 2009 with 43.92% has seen its approval ratings being decimated to a mere 8%, being placed at 5th place, after right-wing New Democracy (31%), left-wing Democratic Left (18%), left-wing Communist Party of Greece (KKE) (12.5%) and left-wing SYRIZA (12%). At the same poll, G.A. Papanderou, is the least approved political leader with 9% approval, while 71% of Greeks do not trust Papademou as a PM.

On a poll published on 18 May 2011, 62% of the people questioned felt that the IMF memorandum that Greece signed in 2010 was a bad decision that hurt the country, while 80% had no faith in the Minister of Finance, Giorgos Papakonstantinou, to handle the crisis.[141] Evangelos Venizelos replaced Mr. Papakonstantinou on 17 June. 75% of those polled gave a negative image of the IMF, and 65% feel it is hurting Greece's economy.[141] 64% felt that the possibility of bankruptcy is likely, and when asked about their fears for the near future, polls showed a fear of: unemployment (97%), poverty (93%) and the closure of businesses (92%).[141]

Call for debt audit commission

In the documentary Debtocracy made by a group of Greek journalists, it is argued that Greece should create an audit commission, and force bondholders to suffer from losses, like Ecuador did.

Lihat juga[sunting | sunting sumber]

Nota[sunting | sunting sumber]

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Rujukan[sunting | sunting sumber]

  • Ronald Janssen, 'Greece and the IMF:Who Exactly is Being Saved?' (July 2010) CEPR